Monday, January 23, 2006

Still in Limbo

With the Coco trade still all speculation, Ken Rosenthal has weighed in. What he's reporting (and he's usually right, if not real close) is the same initial trades to go down that are listed in Sunday's post.

Before I get into the moves fully (because they still haven't happened), I want to take a step back and look at some numbers for the players that seem to be the most oft-mentioned in the moves.
First, the outfielders in question and their 2005 stats:
Coco Crisp
-.300/.345 OBP/.465 SLG/.800 OPS
-16HR/69RBI/594AB
-44BB/81K
Jason Michaels
-.304/.399 OBP/.415 SLG/.814 OPS
-4HR/31RBI/289AB
-44BB/45K
Not too far off of each other, except that Coco had double the AB's and a worse K/BB ratio. Michaels is also superior in OBP, which could translate into his insertion to the #2 hole (if the trade happens).

Next, the relievers and their 2005 stats:
Arthur Rhodes
–43 1/3IP/1.04 WHIP/2.08 ERA
-43K/12BB
Guillermo Mota
–67IP/ 1.44 WHIP/4.70 ERA
-60K/32BB
Rhodes' numbers look a lot better, but the numbers were reversed in 2004. Truth be told, relievers (outside of Mo Rivera) are hard to predict from year to year.

Up to this point, the players involved look pretty similar. And now you get to the reason that the Indians are making this trade and his 2005 stats in AAA:
Andy Marte
-.275/.372 OBP/ .506 SLG/.878 OPS
-20 HR/70RBI/389 AB
-64BB/83K
Now I know what you're saying, "he's just a 21 year old prospect at AAA," but consider the comparable stats of a 22 year old in AAA in 2004:
Jhonny Peralta
-.323/.382 OBP/.489 SLG/.871 OPS
-15 HR/86 RBI/560 AB
-55BB/129K
So, imagine Peralta being a year ahead of where he is now. Do you try to make that acquisition?

I don't know if this trade helps or hurts the Tribe in 2006. If it does either, it's not that big of a difference. The difference is Marte, the middle of the order RH bat that doesn't come around very often.

When you have a desperate team willing to overpay for a player, you take advantage, regardless of where you finished last year or where you project this year. This deal makes the Indians a better, deeper team for a long time.

If the deal goes down, I'll get a lot more in-depth. Right now, Jack Bauer's about to save the world (again).

1 comment:

Ytown Fan said...

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Go Tribe!